Senator John McCain on Iran

In his address yesterday to the Conservative Political Action Committee Conference, Senator John McCain, the presumed Republican presidential nominee, spoke about how he will deal with Iran. His position does not seem to have changed much since he sang his little ditty, "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran." The excerpt below is from the transcript of Senator McCain's speech.

SEN. MCCAIN: Those senators won't recognize and seriously address the threat posed by an Iran with nuclear ambitions to our ally Israel in the region. I intend -- (applause) -- I intend to make unmistakably clear to Iran we will not permit a government that espouses the destruction of the state of Israel as its fondest wish and pledges undying enmity to the United States to possess the weapons to advance their malevolent ambitions. (Applause.)

Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will concede to our critics that our own actions to defend against its threats are responsible for fomenting the terrible evil of radical Islamic extremism, and the resolve to combat it will be as flawed as their judgment. I intend --

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hear, hear!

SEN. MCCAIN: I intend to defeat the threat by staying on offense and by marshalling every relevant agency of our government and our allies in the urgent necessity of defending the values, virtues and security of free people against those who despise all that is good about us.

Iran's Centrifuge Progress Underscores Need for U.S. to Drop Preconditions

News reports that Iran is progressing in efforts to make more efficient and reliable centrifuges underscore the need for the U.S. to drop preconditions and begin negotiating with Iran immediately. European diplomats and American officials disclosed this week that Iran is testing new centrifuges known as IR-2s. The existence of the IR-2s were revealed in January when International Atomic Energy Agency officials were allowed to visit a complex for the machine’s development.

The IR-2s are a modified version of the P-2 centrifuge (P meaning Pakistani in origin). According to a new report by David Albright and Jaqueline Shire at the Institute for Science and International Security, a tubelike rotor made of carbon fibers rather than maraging steel is at the core of the new centrifuge design, demonstrating considerable technical creativity.

IR-2s are meant to replace the less reliable P-1 centrifuges, of which Iran currently is operating about 3,000 at 10 percent capacity at the Natanz nuclear facility. According to Albright and Shire, the IR-2 uranium enrichment throughput is about 2.5 times greater than the P-1 centrifuge, which means that if configured properly, it would take approximately 1,200 IR-2 centrifuges versus 3,000 P-1 centrifuges to produce a similar quantity of enriched uranium.

The U.S. is using the opportunity to make the case for a third round of United Nations sanctions against Iran ahead of a new report to be delivered later this month by IAEA Director Mohammed ElBaradei on progress to resolve outstanding issues related to Iran’s nuclear program. The new draft resolution already agreed to by the P5+1 (Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and U.S.) is mostly an incremental increase in sanctions, including a provision that would require countries to deny entry to any person involved in Iran's nuclear programs, it also goes beyond previous resolutions to include a ban on all trade in civilian nuclear equipment or technology that could also be used to create nuclear weapons. The U.S. also wants UN member states to be asked to inspect cargo going to and from Iran if there is reason to believe that contraband is aboard – a measure that raises the danger of further incidents at sea between U.S. and Iranian warships in the already tense Persian Gulf.

Iran is not relenting to existing UN sanctions and is unlikely to relent under a new round of sanctions. Progress on a new generation of centrifuges highlights the need for the U.S. to drop preconditions and engage in direct, unconditional, bilateral talks with Iran to resolve outstanding issues. Such a move would provide incentive for Iran to implement the Additional Protocol, which was reaffirmed by the IAEA delegation in January, so that Iran’s nuclear program will become more transparent and accountable to inspectors and the international community.

As side note related to the Additional Protocol, President George W. Bush took a surprising step on February 4 when he issued an executive order directing U.S. agencies to develop regulations to administer the Additional Protocol to the U.S. safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is still unclear when the President will submit formal notification, but once finalized the Additional Protocol would grant IAEA officials access to civilian nuclear facilities, though not access to nuclear weapons facilities. The move may have been prompted to partially allay concerns about the hypocrisy of U.S. nonproliferation policy which urges Iran and other countries to adopt far more intrusive versions of the Additional Protocol. The move may also be meant to bolster support for U.S. efforts to expand civilian nuclear technology under the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership and to bolster efforts to carve an exception that would allow the U.S. to cooperate with India, a non-signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, on nuclear technology.

House Committee Misdirects Debate on Proliferation Prevention Initiative

Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman testified today in a hastily scheduled hearing in the House Energy and Commerce Committee to explore diversion of funds under the Initiatives for Proliferation Prevention (IPP). After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, many scientists and engineers with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) knowledge and expertise suffered significant cuts in pay or lost their government-supported work. The U.S. was concerned these scientists might sell their expertise to terrorists or countries of concern and established the IPP program under the Department of Energy (DOE) in 1994.

The efficacy of the program has been increasingly criticized and was the subject of a January 23, 2008 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report entitled “Nuclear Nonproliferation: DOE Needs to Reassess Its Program to Assist Weapons Scientists in Russia and Other Countries.” The GAO was asked to assess (1) DOE's reported accomplishments for the IPP program, (2) DOE's exit strategy for the program, and (3) the extent to which the program has experienced annual carryovers of unspent funds and the reasons for any such carryovers. Among other key assessments, mismanagement chief among them, the GAO found:

1. DOE has overstated accomplishments on the number of scientists receiving DOE support and the number of long-term, private sector jobs created.
2. DOE has not developed an exit strategy for the IPP program and recently expanded the program to new areas including providing assistance to scientists in Iraq and Libya. Most importantly, through the IPP program, the DOE is working to develop projects that support a controversial program, the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership to expand the use of civilian nuclear power.
3. In every fiscal year since 1998, DOE carried over unspent funds in excess of the amount that the Congress provided for the program. Two main factors have contributed to this recurring problem—lengthy review and approval processes for paying former Soviet weapons scientists and delays in implementing some IPP projects.

The GAO recommended, among other things, that DOE conduct a fundamental reassessment of the IPP program, including the development of a prioritization plan and exit strategy.

Most significantly, nowhere in the report did the GAO mention issues of diversion of U.S. funds from Russia to support the Bushehr reactor in Iran. However, Michigan Representatives John D. Dingell, chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and Bart Stupak, chairman of that committee’s Oversight and Investigations subcommittee, are choosing to focus on this issue through letters, articles and hearings. My colleague Leonor Tomero has been closely reviewing the IPP and notes that Congress should truly be concerned about the very real issue of fund diversion to the controversial Global Nuclear Energy Partnership.

However, Representatives Dingell and Stupak are concentrating on an essentially non-existent issue, claiming that the IPP program is providing funding for the Bushehr reactor through, for example, the Scientific Research Institute of Measuring Systems in Nizhny Novgorod, which is making control room equipment for the reactor. They sent a letter to Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman on February 6 in which they asked: “What policy logic justifies D.O.E. funding Russian institutes which are providing nuclear technology to Iran? How does this advance our non-proliferation goals?”

The Department of Energy responded in a statement, “We are confident that none of the projects cited by the House committee, or any of the department’s scientist engagement projects with Russia, support nuclear work in Iran.”

In the New York Time articles by Matthew Wald published on February 7, Representative Dingell said, “Only this administration would complain about proliferation in Iran, as part of President Bush’s axis of evil, and then finance it with American taxpayer dollars.” Meanwhile, Representative Stupak called it “schizophrenic foreign policy” and said “We should not be doing business with institutes that help promote Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”

The fact that Russia is cooperating with Iran on the Bushehr reactor is not the heart of the matter and only deters focus from the real issues surrounding the efficacy of the IPP program. Although, given his voting record on Iran, it is not so curious that Representative Stupak in particular is choosing to misdirect the debate on issues surrounding the IPP to Russian cooperation with Iran.

It should, however, be noted that the Bush administration has indeed flip-flopped on the Bushehr issue. While the U.S. initially opposed Russian participation in building the Bushehr reactor and supplying it with fuel, the Bush administration changed its position last year in order to get Russian support for United Nations sanctions on Iran. The reversal in the U.S. position on the Bushehr reactor also followed Iran’s agreement to return spent nuclear fuel from the reactor back to Russia to ensure it doesn't extract plutonium to make nuclear weapons. The Bush administration has since been pointing to the Bushehr program to support arguments that Iran does not need a uranium enrichment program.

The Bushehr reactor is expected to start-up in 2009 and Iran received the final shipment of uranium fuel from Russia on January 28. The fuel, around 82 tons, is now in storage, sealed and under constant camera surveillance, per Russia’s demands, and subject to enhanced International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards verification procedures. The nuclear fuel will not be loaded into the reactor until all construction and testing work is complete, which is expected in Fall 2008.

Comprehensive Diplomatic Initiative for the Stabilization of Iraq

On December 19, 2007, Representatives Elijah E. Cummings (D-MD), Walter Jones (R-NC), Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD), Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), John Murtha (D-PA), Silvestre Reyes (D-TX) quietly introduced a new bipartisan resolution, H.Con.Res. 274, the Comprehensive Diplomatic Initiative for the Stabilization of Iraq Act of 2008.

The bill was introduced following President Bush’s announcement that the drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq had begun and will continue in the coming months. Members of Congress believe any responsible drawdown in U.S. troops requires a more comprehensive and regional diplomatic initiative and the creation of an adequate diplomatic and political infrastructure to help reconcile Iraq’s fledging government.

H.Con.Res. 274 urges the need for a collaborative effort between the President, the administration and government of Iraq to initiate, develop and implement a sustained comprehensive regional and multilateral diplomatic initiative. It also expresses the vital role that the United Nations Security Council, United Nations Secretary General, Iraq’s neighboring states, regional organizations such as, the Arab League and non-governmental organizations should play in achieving this effort.

The bill also recommends the implementation of Iraq Study Group Recommendation 9, which states, “Under the aegis of the New Diplomatic Offensive and the [Iraq International] Support Group, the United States should engage directly with Iran and Syria in order to try to obtain their commitment to constructive policies toward Iraq and other regional issues. In engaging with Syria and Iran, the United States should consider incentives, as well as disincentives, in seeking constructive results.”

Iran Details in the International Affairs Budget Request

This afternoon, the U.S. Department of State posted a Summary and Highlights of the Fiscal Year 2009 International Affairs budget request (also known as Function 150).

The summary reveals details regarding Iran-related funding in the Economic Support Fund line item. For Fiscal Year 2009, the Statement Department is requesting $65 million in Economic Support Funds for Iran (page 79), this is more than triple the spending amount for Fiscal Year 2008, which is estimated at $21.623 million. I believe this tripling in Economic Support Funds is due to a couple of factors including the restructure in the State Department and it's Iran desk. A second factor is the Fiscal Year 2008 Foreign Operations bill in which Congress appropriated $60 million under Section 693, a general provision for so-called "Programs to Promote Democracy, Rule of Law and Governance in Iran." It has been unclear since Section 693 was originally added as an amendment introduced by Rep. Crenshaw to the House Foreign Operations Appropriations bill for exactly which programs this funding was meant, i.e. whether this section was meant to increase funding for the Economic Support Fund or the Human Rights and Democracy Fund, or if it was meant to serve as an overall guideline for total spending on so-called "democracy promotion" programs. It is still a question that needs to be answered. Thus, the tripling in the request for the Economic Support Funds could indicate that either the State Department recognizes that Congress supports this program and they can get additional funds for it or that State Department is trying to streamline the so-called democracy assistance funds thorugh the Economic Support Fund line item.

While the FY'09 Summary and Highlights does not state exactly how much of the International Broadcasting Operations funds ($654 million requested) will be devoted to Iran, it does note that funds will be used to launch Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Azerbaijani broadcasts to Iran. It is also unclear how much of $522 million in requested funding under the Educational and Cultural Exchange Programs will be allocated to Iran-related programs, but the funding will "provide new opportunities for American students to learn critical need languages." In addition to four other languages, the initiative focuses on Farsi.

Below are details.

Page 29: Economic Support Funds

Democracy Issues in States of Concern: ESF programming encourages democratic reform and builds civil society so that states will respond to the needs of their people.

• Iran – ESF funds will support the aspirations of the Iranian people for a democratic and open society by promoting civil society, civic participation, media freedom and freedom of information.

Page 61: National Security Language Initiative

FY 2009 funding will also sustain the President’s National Security Language Initiative, building international capacity and knowledge among Americans. It will provide new opportunities for American students to learn critical need languages abroad and strengthen foreign language teaching in the United States. The initiative focuses on Arabic, Chinese, Farsi, Russian, and Turkic languages.

Page 65: International Broadcasting Operations

The FY 2009 request provides $654 million for International Broadcasting Operations. Through this account, the BBG funds operations of the Voice of America (VOA), Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), Radio Free Asia (RFA), and Middle East Broadcasting Networks (including Alhurra, Alhurra-Iraq, Alhurra-Europe, and Radio Sawa), as well as related program delivery and support activities.

This funding will enhance VOA broadcasts to Somalia and the Horn of Africa and launch RFE/RL Azerbaijani broadcasts to Iran. It will also significantly strengthen VOA, RFE/RL, and RFA Internet capability and improve Alhurra’s television production capability.

Iranian Americans Favor US-Iran Diplomacy

The Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley has released a new research report, "Political Attitudes and Patterns of PoliticalParticipation of Iranian Americans in California," by IGS Research Specialist Dariush Zahedi in collaboration with Susan Rasky of the Graduate School of Journalism. The report outlines the results of a recent survey of the Iranian-American community. Most respondents believe that the United States should establish diplomatic relations with Iran and very few support strategic bombing of Iran's nuclear targets.

According to the report:

"Indeed, even though the survey was conducted prior to the recent release of [the National Intelligence Estimate] NIE, the majority of all respondents (66%) believe that the US should establish diplomatic relations with Iran. Significantly, the preponderance of Iranian Americans today, in contrast to Iraqi Americans in 2003, is adamantly opposed to war. Only 13% maintain that the US should engage in strategic bombing of Iran's nuclear targets, while 8% favor the bombing of Iranian military and oil installations."

Bush's Final Spending Plan

Today, President George W. Bush revealed his final spending plan for the U.S. fiscal year 2009 budget – a whopping $3.1 trillion. The budget includes increased military spending and protects Bush’s tax cuts. According to the Washington Post article:

“The spending proposal, which shows the government spending $3 trillion in a 12-month period for the first time in history, squeezes most of government outside of national security, and also seeks $196 billion in savings over the next five years in the government's giant health care programs – Medicare for the elderly and Medicaid for the poor.

“Even with those savings, Bush projects that the deficits, which had been declining, will soar to near-record levels, hitting $410 billion this year and $407 billion in 2009. The all-time high deficit in dollar terms was $413 billion in 2004.”

While the full line-item budget and breakdown is not yet available online, the “Department of State and Other International Programs” budget so far only includes Iran-related funding in the proposed spending for the Broadcasting Board of Governors. There are no other direct references to Iran in the other budget outlines. Here is the description for the $699 million for the Broadcasting Board of Governors (page 2):

“Continues international broadcasting. $699 million for the Broadcasting Board of Governors to provide accurate and objective news and information about the United States and the world to international audiences via television, radio, and the Internet with a continued focus on broadcasting throughout the Middle East and to people living under tyranny in North Korea, Burma, Iran, and Cuba.”

I am sure more budget details will be revealed soon and I will post Iran-related measures, particularly when details are revealed about the "Economic Support Fund" and the "Education and Cultural Exchange Programs," both of which had Iran-related funding in the previous year. Both programs also have a projected increase in spending over fiscal years 2007 and 2008.